Climbing Routes: Predicting Summit League’s race to the Big Dance

Maybe you’ve heard that offense in college basketball has been trending down lately.

That’s the peculiar thing about college, though: You’re often living in a bubble. The news is dictated differently, usually by word of mouth.  Stories you’d sometimes of caught wind of from your parents that bares mentioning goes unnoticed.

So forgive us Summit League folks. Bubble talk isn’t normally our game, but this time, we’re inside and must have missed the memo.

First, there’s the numbers, which state that the conference is right on par with the rest of Division-I, hovering around 68.1 points per game. Considering that two of its members in North Dakota State and Western Illinois rank in the bottom four of 347 teams in adjusted tempo (via kenpom.com), it seems the numbers could be lower.

And yet, isn’t this is an aesthetically-driven issue? In that regard, things have gone swimmingly. Thanks to national writers like CBSSports.com’s Matt Norlander, Nate Wolters permeated the high-major conference talk and landed on the radar of college hoops aficionados, and that was before last Thursday’s tour de force in Fort Wayne. Also, consider that if you average the points per game of North Dakota State and Western Illinois coupled with those of South Dakota State and Oakland, you get 69.1.

Nate Wolters’ 53 points in Fort Wayne became tops of any Division-I player this season, even Travis Bader’s previous high of 47.

Which appropriately leads to a meeting at the pass of four teams. Just a week ago, it appeared as if only three teams would be making a serious expedition to glory in Sioux Falls, but an unexpected twist of a tweaked rotation and disciplined play has added another climber in Oakland.

Injuries coupled with strong runs of form have prompted opinions contrary to the standings. Factoring in the standings, the rest of the schedule and factors in play at the conference tourney, here’s a guess at the hierarchy of teams best positioned to rep the Summit in the Big Dance:

1. South Dakota State – The team that garnered all but one of the first-place votes in the preseason poll still leads the pack. Like the Bison, they sit one-half game behind Western Illinois, but several factors work in their favor. You could argue that having Wolters is the foremost advantage in a league where all the contending teams are thriving at the point. The Jackrabbits have also put the stretch of playing the other three contending teams on the road behind them, and were the only team to beat the Leathernecks in their own yard. Then there’s the crowd factor in Sioux Falls, where SDSU is always the home team regardless of jersey colors. The road goes through the boys from Brookings.

2. Oakland – One of the two tougher teams to position, but the temperature is hot. Despite being two games behind Western Illinois, all other significant obstacles seem behind Greg Kampe’s group. They split the series even with the other contenders, with all three home victories against the other significant others coming in their past five games, all triumphs.

So what makes the Grizz next best? It seems the kinks have been ironed out at the ideal time. Dante Williams has seen double-digit playing time in five of Oakland’s last six, but hadn’t that amount of run previously since Dec. 1 at Western Michigan. Clearly, though, the transfer from Providence is the x-factor. After watching two memorable floor generals sewn from differing threads in Johnathon Jones and Reggie Hamilton come through, Duke Mondy was clearly underwhelming early in the season, making critical errors with his ball-handling and displaying uneven shooting performances. With Ryan Bass moving into the starting lineup and Mondy to the bench, he’s been a revolution. OU’s last loss, an uncharacteristic blowout at home versus South Dakota, they turned the ball over 18 times. In the winning streak since, Oakland’s assist-to-turnover ratio has been 1.92, which would easily surpass D-I leader Notre Dame over the full season (1.67).

3. Western Illinois
4. North Dakota State – Both their fates seemed tied together, with a great deal resting on Thursday’s tilt between the two teams.

Assuming the Jackrabbits defeat Western Illinois at home (not unfair after winning on the road) and Oakland avoids any upsets with them, the two will finish 13-3 and 12-4, respectively. Of course, that’s no guarantee, but the gap between the best and the rest has been fairly discernible.

It just seems fate has dealt North Dakota State a cruel hand (or foot?) with the Taylor Braun injury that struck in January. Home or away, it’s unclear whether or not the Bison have the firepower to dispatch of the league’s best without NDSU’s leading scorer. They’ve failed to beat the other three contenders without him, and I think his ability on the wing is the difference between the two team’s firepower.

I see a win for Western Illinois allowing them to finish at 13-3, and a lesser head-to-head record with SDSU would leave them the No. 2 seed. Similarly, though Oakland and North Dakota State potentially finish 12-4, the Bison seem more likely to also come up short H2H with a higher-seeded team in WIU, meaning they get slotted to No. 4.

A prediction: Taylor Braun’s bill of health will truly be a looming factor headed into Sioux Falls. With him, a victory similar to the one they squeezed out in Fargo this season is possible. Meanwhile, Oakland is playing perhaps the best basketball in the conference. If the seeding plays out as prognosticated, I foresee another scoring epic battle between Wolters and Oakland’s Travis Bader in the tourney final.

If it’s how the fates align, it’s safe to assume the offense will be alive and well when everyone’s looking inside the bubble.

The Final Countdown: ESPN BracketBusters matchups announced for Summit League

ESPN’s BracketBusters have been a bit of a conundrum for Summit League teams and coaches.

On one hand, it’s undoubtedly a great spotlight for a league that receives little fanfare on the major networks until March comes around, or a dominant player (Nate Wolters) or performance (Travis Bader) permeates the national consciousness of college basketball’s mainstream. On the other, it contorts practices, schedules and times to be less than ideal for a conference that features a greater amount of travel and the wear and tear that comes about with it.

Regardless, the conference as a whole seems to have benefited once again this year, grabbing two prime time games on consecutive nights, as is mentioned below.

Known games and opponents are as follows (times listed are ET):

Bowling Green at IPFW
Cleveland State at Western Illinois
North Dakota at Nebraska-Omaha
North Dakota State @ Akron (2/22, 7 p.m. on ESPN2)
Oakland vs. Morehead State
South Dakota at Montana State (2/23, 2 p.m.)
South Dakota State at Murray State (2/23, 8 p.m. on ESPN2)
UMKC at Tennessee Tech
Wisconsin-Milwaukee at IUPUI (2/23, 3 p.m.)

A breakdown of opponents by conference: Big Sky Conference (2), Horizon League (2), MAC (2), Ohio Valley Conference (3).

In case you were wondering, a few of last year’s Summit League departees are also in  this year’s BracketBusters: Weber St travels to Oral Roberts (Southland), and Cal State-Northridge plays at Southern Utah (Big Sky).

Punched Out: Don’t Stare Into the Skip, KU’s Alpha Dog, W2W4 The Weekend

Remember when your parents and teachers said not to stare into the sun when you’re a little kid? How it’ll damage your eyes? It begs the question: How many other senses are damaged, aside from your eyes, if you stare at ESPN’s “First Take” for too long?

I’m glad that Bun B likes Jemele Hill, and don’t get me wrong, Rob Parker getting the boot is one small step for sportskind. But what is this panel of wrong? Jemele, Suh over Barry? WRONG. Skip, you were a high school baller extraordinaire? WRONG. And what’s it say about Herm Edwards to be surrounded by…this?

Progress.

This is damaging to your six senses. Yes, common sense included. It’s so bad that sometimes Bayless looks right. Like when Herm and Hill Inc. talked Friday about how Tim Tebow needs to be a team player and adapt to the NFL YOU MUST BE THIS KIND OF QB TO RIDE philosophy. Were those two hiding in the Rob Parker Fallout Bunker© this whole season, not watching all these rookie quarterbacks have offenses completely tailored to them? Newsflash, Herm: Coaches want to keep coaching, and general managers want to stay in their jobs, too. NFL teams are adapting to the strengths of their quarterbacks right out the gate, and have stopped trying to put a square peg into a circle.

Parents, family, friends: Tell your friends to look away. This is just one shining example. Repeated viewing has long-lasting effects.

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What a great week for college hoops. Wednesday night saw a handful of ranked teams trailing or struggling. We saw a majority of them bare the chinks in their armor (Note to Illinois: Still too many 3s), and the underdog teams showed why they’re underdogs (Seton Hall, too many TOs against a ball-hawking Louisville). I continue to be impressed with New Mexico,who’ve only lost to two high-caliber mid-major squads in South Dakota State and Saint Louis. The biggest takeaway, though?

Ben McLemore, Alpha Dog.

Maybe Gonzaga’s Kelly Olynyk is the Player of the Week, but McLemore owned the night, and the bank. Perfect from deep and the line, McL tore it up to the tune of 33 points, including the glass triple to tie the game with a second left against Iowa State, and the Jayhawks slammed the door shut in overtime. Only two of his points came in OT, so the stats weren’t heavily padded. He even added two blocks for good measure.

Call me a biased Kansas fan, but has anyone seen their stock rise more in the sport this season? Remember, the knock on McLemore after being redshirted due to high-school academic records was that he didn’t have the genes to carry a team in clutch time like his former AAU teammate Bradley Beal. Let’s all just collectively admit how wrong we were. Barring a monumental collapse, there’s little chance he slides out of the top five in next year’s NBA Draft, and could go as high as third. I’m willing to bet McLemore’s emergence as a void now fully filled for the Jayhawks and Arizona’s Thursday night loss to Oregon bumps Kansas to a No. 1 seed in the next edition of Bracketology.

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Last week’s picks were good ones. All favorites, but went 3-0 regardless. Here’s a trio for this weekend:

Seattle 24, Atlanta 20 – The Seahawks have had a stingy defense all season, but this one will be a tough test. They’ll want to limit Tony Gonzalez and Jacquizz Rodgers when he’s in, keeping those two at a minimum in short-yardage situations. The larger task at hand for Seattle’s premium corners will be their matchups, and you have to think one big play at the least is possible in front of a roaring home crowd. Will losing kicker Steven Hauschka be an underrated factor for Seattle? He hasn’t missed one yet all season, so if a long opportunity arises, how much faith will Pete Carroll put in newly signed Ryan Longwell? Still, Lynch should gash Atlanta on the ground as teams have done before this. I think that’s the difference in what’s a much easier game to pick on the NFC side this week.

New England 34, Houston 17 – I said last week each team’s QB in the Cincy-Houston contest would make a complete head-shaking play. Heck, Andy Dalton would have had another costly one in the books if Kareem Jackson had held onto an INT. But if you think the Texans can survive mistakes like the one Matt Schaub gifted to Leon Hall early last week against the Patriots? In the playoffs? Notta. But I’m giving the Texans some props, right? The last meeting yielded a 28-point differential in favor of the Pats. But we know that Houston is a team that makes its living running the ball. They’ll fall behind and be forced to go for broke too early and too often in Foxboro.

Arsenal 1, Manchester City 1 – This is a bold prediction, seriously. These two squads have played with the  utmost aesthetic displeasure in the eyes of many fans as of late, with only five total goals scored between the teams in their last five games at Emirates. The visitors will be missing a number of their finest. The Toure Twins, Yaya and Kolo, are both gone to the Africa Cup of Nations. Sergio Aguero (hamstring) and Samir Nasri (suspension) are both missing. Following the misstep against Swansea (was it one, after disposing of Chelsea?), Arsenal would likely suffice for the sole point, but perhaps Arsene Wenger’s XI will push knowing that City is at its weakest. I’ll gander that an excellent long strike or free kick nets one for the Gunners, while Carlos Tevez or Edin Dzeko slip past Arsenal’s central defense for one in another deadlock.

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Top picks for the DVR if you’re out on the town this weekend. We’re going five deep with playoff football:

1. NFL Playoffs – Baltimore @ Denver (Saturday, 4:30 ET, CBS)
2. NFL Playoffs – Green Bay @ San Fransisco (Saturday, 8 ET, FOX)
3. CBB – Minnesota @ Indiana (Saturday, Noon, Big Ten Network) – My top college hoops game of the weekend. More interesting than Duke (@ NC State) and Michigan (@ Ohio State), who I think both take care of business.

Punched Out: Reaction to Reid, FB Picks, W2W4 the Weekend

It’s worth considering the notion that Kansas City’s waistline can’t expand any further to make room for more fat coach jokes, particularly during the holiday season.

Mark Mangino, Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel, and now Andy Reid. Let the laughs begin, right?

Fact is, no one’s been laughing during a period of time where only another team down I-70, the St. Louis Rams, has been mired in as much mediocrity. How did things get so bad, a transition from beloved characters (Dick Vermeil, Will Shields) to comic book-esque villains like foul-mouthed Todd Haley and Scott Pioli?

So perhaps it’s someone who’s dealt with it himself who can dig one of the NFL’s more storied franchises in the Chiefs out of tragedy. Somewhat like the team Reid left, and another team picking in the top five of this year’s NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions, the Chiefs have cornerstones to build around with upward trajectory in sight. Jamaal Charles is a speed back who figures to fit appropriately into Reid’s history of speed backs with the potential to catch a vast number of balls out of the backfield. Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson are Pro Bowl pieces in the front seven, and Eric Berry is around to fill the playmaker role ala Brian Dawkins at safety.

Though many said the same about Pioli previously, it’s a fine grab by Clark Hunt and the Chiefs, giving them a guy who instills a greater level of confidence than Herm Edwards did at the helm. Reid has his quirks (pass first) and flaws (a bit gadget-play obsessed), but he at least temporarily clears the dark shroud that’s grown increasingly opaque this past season. Now, the rest of the NFL figures to wonder how Reid and his yet-to-be-named GM will handle the first pick in the draft.

Speaking of, a few quick picks for this weekend:

• Seattle 24, Washington 17 – Chances are the Rookie of the Year award is decided in this one. Here’s the tantalizer in Russell Wilson indicators for this game: Do you go buy Wilson’s unimpressive away split (9/8 TD-INT ratio), or believe that he’s not the same QB he was in the season’s first half? There’s no doubt that CenturyLink Field serves as a distinct advantage for the Seahawks. A few factors play into this pick: Brandon Browner returns from his four-game suspension, returning the secondary to full strength, and KR Leon Washington gives the Seahawks the advantage in the third phase. 
• Houston 23, Cincinnati 20 – Both teams seem to be going in opposite directions, but I don’t think they’ve crossed each other at the pass just yet. The Bengals have feasted on a number of weak teams in the second half, and Andy Dalton seems to make too many critical mistakes at the worst times, and for a quarterback who works best when he has plenty of time, that may prove problematic with J.J. Watt coming full throttle. Both quarterbacks might make a mistake that has their fan base face-palming, but I think a clock-eating drive and a game that sees Houston lean on the run game allows the Texans to win this one on a late field goal.
• Texas A&M 38, Oklahoma 27 – A conservative prediction, this one could get uglier. Johnny Manziel is the chic story in Friday night’s game, but the Aggies will really punish Oklahoma on the ground. Texas A&M has plenty of motivation, and Manziel erased doubt that he can deliver against a top-notch defense when they put Alabama to rest.

If you’re out or watching otherwise, I recommend you save space on your DVR for a few other contests this weekend:

1. CBB – Ohio State @ Illinois (Saturday, 2:15 ET, Big Ten Network)
   
2. CBB – Georgetown @ Marquette (Saturday, 2:00 ET, ESPN3)
3. Serie A, AS Roma @Napoli (Delayed, Sunday, 9:00 ET, beIN Sport)

End Games: There will be blood, and upsets

If you were fattened up and loosening the jean buttons from the holidays, this weekend was a good one to hit the recliner or run the treadmill to some good battles. We got one of the most visually-scintillating Premier League matches of the year, a Saturday, bloody Saturday in Las Vegas, and one of the more memorable Week 17’s in the NFL in recent memory.

 

The Good

• NFL’s final regular season week – If you’re not a fan of (insert eliminated team), the narratives for Sunday’s football slate was one of the best in recent memory. OK, so not as much if you’re an AFC fan, but Dr. Feelgood was in the office for lots of nice storylines. Whatever happened, we had a Cowboys-Redskins winner-takes-all contest to serve as last call, but it really lived up to the billing. Chuck Pagano led the Colts to a victory over a Texans squad that Indy played close with earlier this season. Even in a forgettable season for the Lions, Calvin Johnson had a chance to top 2,000 receiving yards (he came short), and made for good viewing fodder as the Bears kept their playoff hopes alive…until a more deserving Vikings team one-upped them in the late afternoon slot.
• Take the playoffs All Day – He didn’t know, he didn’t care. Just like the younger generation probably doesn’t remember Bo Jackson, your kids won’t remember the year Adrian Peterson came nine yards shy and changed the way we view ACL recovery seasons. For that matter, Jamaal Charles suffered an in-season ACL tear, but he came back and only topped 1500 yards for a team that may as well have traded the farm for Shane “Footsteps” Falco to play QB1.
• Revenge greater than anything ABC could dream up – Sure, Cain Velasquez probably put Junior Dos Santos out to pasture in the first round with a right that left him more disheveled than Gus Fring in a nursing home, something felt right about a UFC Heavyweight title clash going the distance. Was it one-sided? Sure, but Velasquez kept a moderate level of punishment up that would’ve been far less interesting if he hadn’t been on the other side of the coin in the first bout.

The Bad

• Junior Dos Santos, period – No one’s saying the guy was unbeatable, and anyone saying the same about Velasquez is just as trigger-happy, yet where was MMA’s best boxer? JDS looked predictable, a one-dimensional boxer who would’ve gotten crushed against anyone with any concept of angles and defense, let alone size and power. Maybe Dos Santos gets someone like Antonio Silva next, blows him up as bad as Velasquez does and repairs his reputation as a stand. But even Daniel Cormier seems to stand a better chance at derailing someone like Dos Santos after Saturday’s evidence presented.
• NFC East, A Year in Review – Dallas, we know it’s not all your fault. More on that in a minute. But the Eagles-Giants game this week was really a microcosmic one in regards to both team’s seasons. For the Eagles, maybe Michael Vick would come back this week and demonstrate a level of value for other teams to buy into him as a QB1 next season, but nope. The real tragedy is for the Giants, a team that played like the kid who always shows up two minutes after the bell rings for class but the teacher lets them in anyway. This time, the door was locked and they’ll be watching from the outside. At least Minnesota was more deserving of the playoff spot they would have occupied, as opposed to Chicago.
• Defense in the BPL – Brilliant as Arsenal’s offensive output was Saturday night during their seven-goal assault on Newcastle in  London, the Theo Walcott hat trick was just a talking point as the continued defensive mishaps that have plagued even the elite teams in football’s elitist league. That’s not even to speak of the winning side, who allowed three goals of their own. Wide back Kieran Gibbs far-post defence was as absent as humanly possible. Teams like Manchester United will be aided by returns to fitness of Vidic and such, but an assessment of shortcomings for the Premier League’s best even seem to point mostly to the back four of most squads.

The Ugly

• The New Tony Award – Best fourth quarter INT. Tony Romo has been scrutinized brutally, but it’s going to come hard and heavy this week and forward. That playoff botch might be the one he never lives down, but even as a sympathizer. the misread in the flat was like watching a fiery car crash. At some point, “Still, would they be 4-12 without him?” just doesn’t carry as far with re-runs like that.
• Speaking of car crash, a parting image: Joe Lauzon.
  

  Joe Lauzon, bloody mess during and after his UFC 155 lightweight bout.

Quick takeaways from Summit League opening night

A true opening night in college hoops. It just feels right!

The ability to swing around the dial and find it on any of the ESPN networks, NBC Sports, or down the road is a great feeling. We’re in an age where you can kick on the laptop and watch games on demand. For those that want to, the average hoops fan can be smarter than ever. Good times, folks.

Seven corners of the  Summit Octagon+1 got activated Friday night, sans Western Illinois, who kick it off Saturday night, and the Coyotes, starting Wednesday. Otherwise, how about be bypass the Yogi jokes at Indiana and quickly stroll through some of the takeaways from Friday’s scores? Plus, the league gets some national love in the night’s premiere match.

 

(At) Seton Hall 75, UMKC Kansas City 36 – Oh no.

Last season was not a good one for Matt Brown’s team. He watched Reggie Hamilton, a transfer from the Kangaroos, become the nation’s leading scorer while his team produced some fairly inept results in a lot of categories. This team wasn’t picked at the cellar of the league this year despite that, but, uh, this just wasn’t a good upward indicator.

Seton Hall? Big East team, but not exactly a world beater. Nate Rogers, a DePaul transfer, couldn’t provide a scoring spark for Brown. Neither did Trinity Hall (three points), who they’re counting on to be a big scorer on the wing this year. Against a more prestigious team, it’s understandable to cough up the ball, acceptable to get out-rebounded. But shooting 3-for-15 from distance and the free-throw line? For the sake of RPI, improvement will be hoped for.

 

Oakland 96, Albion 62 – After perhaps some closer-than-anticipated margins in their exhibitions, this one looked more like an opener at the O’rena that a team looking to contend needed to appear as.

Guard Travis Bader scores points (26)? Check. Point guard Duke Mondy, taking over for last year’s leading scorer in the nation, Hamilton, getting steals (3)? Check. Heck, lots of players got steals. Oakland had 14 total.

I’ll have more about Oakland getting steals and their philosophy this year in this space or elsewhere shortly, but things looked good, especially minus Raphael Carter, who suffered a deep bone bruise and likely will be back at some point before Oakland heads to East Lansing on Nov. 23.

Usually, Greg Kampe has the best quotes at Oakland post-game conferences, or just period at the program. Instead, Bader had the best one tonight (c/o @PaulKampe on Twitter), talking about Oakland’s upcoming road trip: “I love going into other people’s homes and giving them hell.”

 

IUPUI 67, Utah Valley 54 – Good win at the Gym in the league’s lone afternoon contest. This is more what you want to see from a team that might not contend, but is counting on some new pieces to fill the void.

John Hart, a transfer guard from Purdue, provided some senior zest. He led all scorers with 19 points. Mitchell Patton, a 6-foot-9 junior interior player, gave the Jaguars 15 points and seven boards.

It took a while for IUPUI to try and click last year, with Alex Young adjusting to be the Lone Ranger and carry a heavy scoring load. I think he got it figured out a little better as the season progressed, but all the same, the parts never quite clicked and the bounces just never fell their way. I’m not necessarily convinced this team is a contender, but it shouldn’t be as tough for second-year coach Todd Howard, and I think they’ve got a good chance with some more depth to slide in right behind the big names in the conference.

 

Nebraska-Omaha 77, Northern Illinois 64 – The new neighbor in the league picked up their second win in as many years against the Huskies, so that’s nice. Even better at their new place, the Ralston Sports & Event Center. Welcome!

Let’s not get carried away: Former Michigan State assistant and current NIU head coach Mark Montgomery was giving 20+ min. to guys I scouted in high school and are being pressed into roles they’re definitely not ready for, but that’s what happens when you pile up 20-loss seasons.

Still, with Mitch Albers gone, returning Mavericks like Alex Welhouse (13 points) got the job done, and they shot pretty well from the line, too (23/31). Turnovers were a concern (18 to just 10 assists), so they’ll need to take better care of the ball if they hope to get things done at Texas Tech next week.

 

North Dakota State 93, Valley City State 47 – At least it was a short bus ride about 30 min. west of Fargo after this one for Valley City State (yes, had to Google Maps that). The Bison used a definitive 20-0 run to put this one to rest quick.

Despite the competition, lots of positives for NDSU. They missed just one of their 12 attempts at the charity stripe, dominated on the glass (38-12), and limited turnovers. Look, the Jackrabbits are getting a lot of the widespread hype, and for good reason. But the gap is small between the two, and everyone knows this is pretty much a one-bid league that’s likely decided in Sioux Falls. If Mike Felt (23 points) and some of the supporting cast can contribute effectively, things are going to get even better for Saul Phillips, who gets nearly all these guys back next year, too.

 

Auburn 61, Fort Wayne 50 – I know this team didn’t want to have to lean on volume shooting for senior guard Frank Gaines as much this season, and allow him to be more selective/effective. Hopefully for Gaines, things get easier. The guy can score in a variety of ways, but it wasn’t enough against Auburn.

Gaines was 10 of 18 from the field and finished with a game-high 32 points. But the Mastodons collectively minus Gaines? Just five makes, 34 attempts. That’s rough.

It’s going to sting, because this is probably one that Fort Wayne could’ve used to really build some momentum in what continues to be a tough transition since Dane Fife departed for Michigan State. They’re another team that’s got a number of new pieces, so it’s hard to fault them. They’ve got one of the easier non-conference schedules (Notre Dame looks to be the toughest opponent), so things should be a little easier until league play starts. What they really need is consistent interior scoring, but they did a decent job of rebounding from the looks of things, so that’s a start.

 

Alabama 70, South Dakota State 67 – An early chance to score a victory for the league was at hand here, and give the Jackrabbits a lot of credit. They came out early, and it was nearly all Jordan Dykstra and Nate Wolters. SDSU head coach Scott Nagy had the plan: We’re collapsing, you make a jumper. It worked, but that wasn’t even what got the Tide going. They cranked up the pressure, generated turnovers and started attacking the rim. SDSU was getting beat from the backdoor cuts.

Each team made their runs in the second half, and SDSU may have been ever-slightly the better team in this one. Maybe it was one of those times that the Jackrabbits coughed it up with a swipe from behind from a ‘Bama defender. Regardless, Trevor Lacey nets a tough 3-pointer at the buzzer, so it’s just one play that ends up the difference. Great game, too bad for the Summit collectively.

I talked to a player last season about Wolters’ ability to shoot from deep after his numbers fell from the year before. He said he thought he was never as good as his numbers that year had indicated, and I agreed. For Wolters to re-establish himself as a quality 3-point shooter would go a long way for him (this year and for his draft prospects), and SDSU. Well, Wolters supposedly worked on it in the off-season, and from the naked eye, it looked good Friday night. From the box score? Better. He made five of his six attempts from beyond the arc. A more dangerous Wolters means a tougher SDSU team, so let that sink in.

Also, multiple NBA scouts in attendance watching Wolters, particularly keeping an eye on Nate’s defense. Hard to say too much, as Wolters moved around the zone frenetically.

 

P.S., not a good day for The Departed: Both Oral Roberts and Southern Utah defeated tonight.

Can’t promise these as being regular, but as always, I’ll have nuggets on Twitter, and you can hear the analysis on-air: WXOU will have Oakland’s next regional game at Michigan State.

Walls Closing in for RB Options

This is not your slightly older brother’s fantasy football.

The day of the running back is dead, they’ve said. Merely average running backs are getting drafted too damn high!

Some of this is true. Going RB-RB-RB in the first three rounds of drafts no longer seems feasible, let alone wise, even in leagues that allow starting one at a flex position. Quarterbacks are posting obscene totals, wide receiver is deep and whoa, the tight ends! Fantasy football is as mainstream as ever, so how can the wise, veteran player not change with the times when your buddy from school who can’t name last year’s Super Bowl winner can adapt?

Provided there’s not significant values to be had at their QB or TE, I’ve always been of the wait-and-see variety for both. This year? I was willing to veer from tradition and spend early there like many have done. We’re now essentially a week shy of the halfway mark, so how are things going for those who followed suit?

Frankly, I saw greater values in Round 2 to be scooped when faced with the opportunity to pull the trigger on either Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, but if faced with a choice, my instinct was Graham as the safer bet. Too many moving parts (see: Lloyd, Hernandez) with Gronk, Graham seemed safer. Now, Gronkowski leads all TEs in scoring, and Graham trails him by 28 points in standard leagues. Other names behind Graham? Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates, and Aaron Hernandez. All these guys were recommended (myself included) as guys to scoop early. If you got Gronkowski, great. Chances are you’re sitting perfectly well. If not, we’ll get to that shortly.

Quarterback has been roughly a 50/50 shot at the top as well. Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have all been big hits. But a majority of major sources also recommended Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford and Michael Vick in the top three rounds. In standard scoring, Cam Newton clocks in as the highest of those three, ranked No. 13 overall at the position. Where do they finish? Cheap K-Mart Magic 8-Ball says ask again later.

Here’s the takeaways:

1) I’m not sure I can feel good about drafting fewer than two top-tier RBs in the near future in leagues where you’re able to start one at a flex. If you bust rather than boom with your top-flight QB/TE, chances are you’re rolling the dice on a riskier option at RB (DeMarco Murray, Steven Jackson, etc.). As a personal anecdote, I had the misfortune of drafting Vick in a 10-team league that only starts two backs, but still went heavy on RB. Vick is a problem, but I’m getting plenty of offers with a RB core featuring Arien Foster, Ryan Mathews, Steven Ridley and C.J. Spiller. Either way, this applies to every league: Having two good ones is good enough this year, and you still can’t draft enough.

2) The Newton situation is all food for thought when the RGIII Draft Debate comes up next year. Cam looked unstoppable last year connecting to Steve Smith. And oh, the designed runs! Look, he’s still getting those, and the schedule gets easier for Newton. I’m not betting against him finishing right around fifth when it’s all done this season, either. But I worry about Griffin taking hits and missing time more so than Newton, and game-planning for him will improve slightly after an off-season. He won’t be a bargain. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Some other gear-grinding qualms I have in the fantasy department:

• Fantasy players hold grudges. You get burned by a guy one too many times, he’s don’t touch. Even some of the most well-known names in the industry live by the principle. But whatever Kevin Smith did to Jim Schwartz, Chris Johnson must have done worse to the fantasy industry insiders. Look, we knew the pitfalls: A so-so work ethic, a patchwork offensive line. But the same folks who recommended him as a top-five option at RB in the preseason were quick to abandon and undervalue him quickly in their rest-of-season rankings. Now? It seems like a strain to get some to admit he’s start-able again. WHAT?! Look, I realize Buffalo’s defense is more than just a leaky faucet, but he had a good day and volume of carries against at Houston. Considering everything we know about the depth of the position this season, how can you consider benching this guy? It’s not like his potential to have explosive games just came about. It just doesn’t make sense.
• Owners that took up insurance policies on their running backs are paying off on several fronts. This wasn’t the way I thought Maurice Jones-Drew would go down, but Rashad Jennings is the top waiver pickup this week and will be a RB2 option over the next two or three games. Again, backs getting high-volume carries are valuable commodities now more than ever, save for the most barren situations. Also, kudos if you added Montario Hardesty or Felix Jones. These guys are more flex-options, but I won’t be surprised to see them as RB2’s in a lot of lineups.
• A few guys either outside of the elite and/or that I like more than most for Week 8: Andrew Luck, Sam Bradford, Willis McGahee, Antonio Brown, Malcolm Floyd.
• Conventional wisdom would tell you maybe this is a good week to play tight end Coby Fleener if you’re desperate at the position. The Titans have given up the most points to TEs this year (13.2 PPG) by a good margin. But consider also that they’ve faced four of the six highest-scoring TEs to-date this season. Again, only if you’re desperate.

Oakland nabs former West Virginia commit Tommie McCune

6-foot-8 lengthy forwards don’t exactly grow on trees at the mid-major level, so Greg Kampe’s staff pulled down quite a branch on this one.

Scoop goes to Steve Bell of BankHoops via Twitter, and a source confirmed that former Saginaw High and West Virginia forward Tommie McCune has committed to Oakland and will begin taking summer classes there beginning this Monday.

McCune, who averaged 0.4 points and 0.6 rebounds per game in 13 contests last season, will will presumably sit out the 2012-13 season due to NCAA eligibility rules, but will present matchup problems galore for Summit League opponents if he lives up to his billing when he takes the court. He was ranked No. 102 on Rivals150 for the class of 2011, making him the highest rated player Oakland has landed according to high school rankings by the site.

West Virginia MetroNews had this from Mountaineers basketball coach Bob Huggins regarding his departure from the program:

“He said, ‘Coach, I love it here,'” Huggins said.  “He said ‘I love the people, but I need to play and I’m looking around, saying I can’t sit here and waste another year and not play.'”

He becomes the second transfer that Oakland’s staff has landed over the off-season, along with Dayton transfer Ralph Hill. Other notable transfers in recent history for the Golden Grizzlies have included Reggie Hamilton (UMKC), Laval Lucas-Perry (Arizona/Michigan) and Larry Wright (St. John’s).

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During my time at MichiganPreps, I ranked McCune tenth in Michigan’s 2011 high school class, just behind LaDontae Henton (Providence) and Patrick Lucas-Perry (Penn). McCune, with 3-point shooting capabilities and a lanky frame, has the ability to be a nightmare in Oakland’s conference at the forward position. He averaged 16 ppg and 9 rpg for Lou Dawkins’ Trojans his senior year, and had double-digit offers from BCS programs before committing to WVU. He’s got good handles for his size, and the ability to play out on the wing or play in the post, especially in the Summit League.

Celtics’ Game 6 Win means more for both teams

Here’s the obvious: The Boston Celtics winning the Eastern Conference Finals would be damaging to the Miami Heat.

Here’s the reality: The Celtics winning the series in Game 6 tonight is far more meaningful.

To the C’s, there’s one clear benefit to putting things away Friday night, and that’s not having to return to Miami. Period. At this point, the Big 3 of Boston already have quite a few miles on those knees; a couple more isn’t going to make any difference. No one’s going to remember 10 years from now how many games it took, just that these guys finished the job.

Well, except for Miami fans. And, likely, all the Heat haters, and there’s plenty of them. No doubt, losing the final game of the series in Miami would hurt, bad. No team wants to do that. But this Chris Bosh injury is an X-factor. And a big factor on the court.

Without Bosh, Miami’s frontcourt cupboard is emptier than the Jim Leyland Fan Club gathering. This was a team designed to surround the top trio with some young talent (Chalmers, Cole) with discounted veterans like Shane Battier. Losing LeBron James or Dwayne Wade for a large portion of a series hurts, but based on this team’s make-up, Bosh is arguably just as critical. As James told reporters, without Bosh on the floor, Kevin Garnett is able to essentially play center field and ignore the pick-and-roll partner the in lieu of Bosh. He’ll provide another body in terms of energy and stamina, and while no one’s going to mistake him for one of the league’s best rebounders, he provides that, too.

There’s a good chance things would’ve turned out differently had Bosh been around the whole series (Avery Bradley would’ve also made a difference), but the excuse is already built-in for the Heat, though they won’t view things that way. So here’s Boston’s chance to deal another blow to their egos. If the Thunder turn away the Heat, no matter the amount of games, they dropped an anvil on the Spurs and have emerged as a legitimate power now, rather than later. Few will view that as a sizable disappointment.

Losing in Game 7 means the Heat split the pair of games that Bosh played full minutes in. Splitting the mini-series, in essence. A win tonight, in that sense, puts that notion to pasture. To fall to a team many felt, as unjustly as it might’ve been, were too old and whose window had closed for NBA Title hopes, means something different than to fall to OKC. It’s the difference between losing by a car length to Matt Kenseth and getting lapped by a Viagra-popping Mark Martin.

It’s about the guarantee Bosh, James and Wade made to collect a handful of rings when they came to Miami. The pressure on them, and obviously James, is very real, and mounts ten-fold with a loss now rather than later. It’ll make a summer in South Beach for James and Co. as cold as can possibly be.

Layup, not dunk, needed from Dumars at No. 9 for Pistons

Psst, Pistons fans. Still out there?

The NBA is not the NFL. When times are tough for fans and the team, the building isn’t going to fill itself out like Jessica Simpson 48 weeks into pregnancy. That goes double for a team without a highly marketable star.

But the fact that there’s still a noticeable pulse reacting to the team’s struggles, growth and recent NBA Draft Lottery fate is discernible proof that all those who packed The Palace during the first Ben Wallace run are still looking for signs of daylight atop the Eastern Conference. There’s been a general knee-jerk reaction to many of Joe Dumars’ chess moves over the past year, accurate or not. The Tayshaun Prince re-up? Many opposed, partially based on the fear of blocking younger talent like Austin Daye, and hit on that notion. Most seemed opposed to re-signing Rodney Stuckey, too. For the price, Stuckey certainly proved to be worth his weight.

Now, for the third time in as many years, the Pistons will remain exactly where they should be, picking ninth overall on June 28. This time, reactions ranged anywhere from relatively neutral to downright apocalyptic. Hey, some of it makes sense, no? The retirement of Nicklas Lidström, the struggles of the Tigers, and a lifetime of rooting for the Lions probably brews skepticism naturally.

It’s obvious that the first overall pick would’ve been a rousing success (sorry, MJ), but to expect that is to be exceedingly foolish from a mathematical standpoint. The apparent drop-off after surefire No. 1 Anthony Davis is tangible, also. Brad Beal and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist both appear to be long-term starters who may land in a few All-Star games, and they’re both unlikely to fall outside of the top five, so even if the Pistons had moved into one of those other coveted top spots, prospects sans Davis still looked fairly solid and mostly sure.

Is the worry from the fan contingent related directly to Joe D? Perhaps it’s fair to question Dumars in terms of drafting talent (see: Cleaves, Milicic, White), but has Matt Millen colored everyone a bit negative? Countering those were solid hits on Mehmet Okur (37^th overall), Aaron Afflalo (27^th), and the aforementioned Prince (23^rd) and Stuckey (15^th). The past few years have been a somewhat mixed bag, albeit seemingly more makes (Jerebko, Knight and certainly Monroe) than air balls (perhaps Daye, Summers).

As much as NBA Draft expectations are created unreasonable, the ninth overall pick is not created equal from draft class to draft class. Certainly this year proves to have some tantalizers combining size and talent like Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones III and Terrence Jones. Aside from Barnes, both are likely possible fits in Detroit. John Henson or Arnett Moultrie both measure up as probable candidates as well. Considering Stuckey is a quite moveable asset, I personally like Austin Rivers’ skill-set. Picking for position rather than best available player is foolish, but for good measure, next year’s free agency class (of the unrestricted sort) looks to sport more bigs like Josh Smith and Paul Millsap than guards.

To go somewhat full circle, the criticism becomes fair for Dumars is in his trades and signings. The pair of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva handcuffed the Pistons financially thanks or no thanks to mostly sub-level production. Here’s my argument: Pistons fans need not expect a 10-time All-Star or anticipate a bust, but rather hope for a long-term starter in the vein of Dumars’ last two lottery selections.

In today’s NBA, teams boasting a top 10 overall player or two like the Chicago Bulls or Miami Heat rule the roost. That theory proves to be no different in the West with the Clippers and OKC. But just as the Pistons proved against the Lakers a decade ago, the Spurs are proving (again) that you can be a favorite with players not named James, Paul or Rose. That blueprint, of course, requires pinpoint precision, like drafting great players late (DeJaun Blair), and even trading one of those (George Hill) for another (Kawhi Leonard).

The Pistons’ outlook shouldn’t be bleak. Just know that the room for error on the path to another NBA Title is slim. He might not say it, but the man who guarded Michael Jordan as good as anybody surely knows that, too.